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Postponed Raila swearing in will not derail reforms.

Raila Odinga was to be sworn in tomorrow as the People's President of Kenya. To his supporters, Raila is the center of gravity of kenya...

11/12/2017

Postponed Raila swearing in will not derail reforms.

Raila Odinga was to be sworn in tomorrow as the People's President of
Kenya. To his supporters, Raila is the center of gravity of kenyan
politics. He is the fulcrum upon which Kenyan politics revolves.

There is no doubt that Raila is the head of the Kenyan
revolution.However, what Kenya needs at present is a movement and not
a revolution.There is a distinct difference between the two.While you
can sabotage a revolution by chopping off the head of a revolutionary,
you can't sabotage a movement. A movement is fed by the rank and file.
Even if you remove the head of a movement, it will still go on
precisely because every member feeds it. In so doing, a movement
mutates. It adapts.It spreads like wildfire. True.A movement needs a
leader. However, if the leader is removed or blocked, the movement
still lingers on.

What Raila has ably done is to transform Nasa into a movement.It is
why Nasa will be immortal, no matter the pressures from the powers
that be.

Here is what a Raila Presidency would entail.

It is said that a country gets the leaders it deserves. How then can
we explain the fact that Raila has come so close to the Presidency,
yet so far away?

In 2007, Raila was as close to the presidency as one could get, but
fate was not kind to him.He ended up being a Prime Minister in a nusu
mkate government.

Raila is a pan africanist per excellence. He would have crafted a
great pan africanist agenda for kenya. In his agenda, a United States
of Africa would be a tenable agenda.

Again, Raila is a great social democrat.In his mind, you can never put
a worth on a teacher or a doctor.In his government, public servants
would have great working conditions and a high pay.

In hindsight also, the gap between the rich and the poor would greatly
reduce. It must be noted that currently, Kenya is one of the most
unequal societies in the world.

Finally, a Raila presidency would usher in an era of great stability.
Kenyans are living in a precarious edge, and any small seismic
activity will have untold ripple effect.

Raila has not gotten what he deserves

It is said that a country gets the leaders it deserves. How then can
we explain the fact that Raila has come so close to the Presidency,
yet so far away?

In 2007, Raila was as close to the presidency as one could get, but
fate was not kind to him.He ended up being a Prime Minister in a nusu
mkate government.

Raila is a pan africanist per excellence. He would have crafted a
great pan africanist agenda for kenya. In his agenda, a United States
of Africa would be a tenable agenda.

Again, Raila is a great social democrat.In his mind, you can never put
a worth on a teacher or a doctor.In his government, public servants
would have great working conditions and a high pay.

In hindsight also, the gap between the rich and the poor would greatly
reduce. It must be noted that currently, Kenya is one of the most
unequal societies in the world.

Finally, a Raila presidency would usher in an era of great stability.
Kenyans are living in a precarious edge, and any small seismic
activity will have untold ripple effect.

Why should we worship our tribal lords?

One fact holds true for Kenyan politics. It is that our politics is
based on tribal affiliation, and not on real issues or ideology.

That is why the views of a high flying professor and his tribesmate in
the village match word for word.

Is it any wonder that at our helm, we have tribal elites that dictate
the pace of our politics? Why can't a luo vie in kiambu, and a kikuyu
in kisumu?

If our politics was based on issues and issues alone, we would be
miles ahead in our country.

We waste untold amounts of energy fighting each other and defending
our tribal lords. Our tribal lords are not held to account simply
because the only qualification they have is sharing our last name.

It is said that at independence, we were at the same level of
development as the East Asian Tigers.But 50 years later, the economies
of East Asian tigers are developed while we continue to wallow in
poverty.

The difference is in leadership. We elect thugs to office in the name
of defending our tribe,only for them to turn and eat us

What next for Raila?

In unexpected move, Nasa has postponed the swearing in of its supremo,
Raila Amolo Odinga as President.

The possibility of a Raila presidency appears more remote by the day.
So then, what is the next step for Raila?

One, he could postpone his ambitions to 2022. This will mean that he
will spoil for a fight with then Jubilee candidate William Ruto. But
by then, the political spectrum will have changed significantly. His
allies like kalonzo musyoka will too be convinced that its their time
to fight for the presidency.

Secondly, Raila could opt to be a respected African statesman. In
this, he could play the role of mediator in the various conflicts
afflicting Africa. In this role, he could join the likes of Thabo
Mbeki in resolving the myriad of conflicts across Africa.

It is not that fate has been unkind to Raila. It is more that
sometimes, a prophet is not honoured at home.

22/11/2017

Minus Raila, Will Jubilee be a dictatorship?

Once again,  supremo Raila Odinga, has missed the Presidency. Uhuru is set to be sworn in next Tuesday, and with that, Raila Odinga will be locked out of the Presidency for five more years. Does Raila have the energy and strength to wait till 2022 to institute important reform changes? I highly doubt. Jubilee will use the carrot and stick to try and isolate him.

Ouster of Mugabe is a wake up call to African dictators

For 37 years, Zimbabwe has known no other leader than Robert Mugabe. The 93 year old has ruled Zimbabwe with an iron fist. He took the bread basket of Africa from prosperity to a desolate place, where finding a job is a miracle. Where putting a meal on the table is a far away goal for many families. The holder of seven degrees did not at any time believe that there could be anyone bettter to lead Zimbabwe.

09/11/2017

Why does Tanzania hate Kenya?

Tanzania is ever more cold towards Kenya. This is the sole reason why
the East African Community-EAC, remains mere rhetoric than tangible
action on the ground. Tanzania is more receptive towards the South
African led SADC.

But why exacty does Tanzania have cold relations with Kenya? There are
many reasons for this.

First Tanzania views Kenya as a man eat man society.Tanzania claims
that if it opens its doors to Kenyans, Kenyans will flood their
country and take their jobs and land.

Secondly, Tanzania fears that Kenya will export its naked tribalism,
and render useless all that Nyerere sought to build.

Nyerere built a cohesive society in which the spirit of 'undugu' would
thrive. While Tanzania's Nyerere was entrenching inclusion through
ujamaa, Jomo Kenyatta was entrenching exclusion and naked tribalism in
Kenya.

Infact, Tanzania is one of the few African countries that have been
stable since independence. Kenya, paradoxingly, had the post election
violence of 2007 taint its image of peace forever.

08/11/2017

Only a rotating presidency will end domination by the bigger tribes

There is a startling statistic in Kenya.That out of the 42 tribes,
only two tribes have ascended to the presidency in post colonial
Kenya.

Jubilee, under Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, appears to even
entrench this rule further.If William Ruto has his way, this
domination will extend to 2032.

What if we are at best incovenient roommates housed together by fate?
Should we then set some ground rules in which we are going to live as
housemates? Should we go the Belgian route and adopt a rotating
Presidency system? When the various tribes that make up Belgium could
not stand one another, they adopted a collegiate rotating presidency
UN style.

In such an arrangement, every region would get its turn to rule.

Should Kenya go this route? I think it should.In such an arrangement,
every region would know that its time to eat would come.

For a start, we could rotate the Presidency among the eight former
provinces. In one swoop, we would have calmed the political
temperatures that get so hot sometimes.

Uhuru benefits from tribalism.How can he eliminate it?

Uhuru Kenyatta never misses a moment to urge us 'tuache ukabila'. But
how can he say that when he has run the most exclusionary government
in Kenya's history ? His government is at the core a two tribe affair
between the kikuyus and the kalenjins.

In this sacred presidential line up, William Ruto is supposed to take
the Presidency in 2022, of course deputised by a kikuyu.

When Uhuru says 'tuache ukabila', what does he exactly mean?Can he
entertain competition from Central? Of course not.Any kikuyu that
attempts that will be eliminated as fast as they appear.

When we shift the gears and analyse Uhuru based on ideology, Uhuru
will be a right wing conservative, but a poor one at that.

One the climate for business is non existent.Two, the social fabric of
the country is poor.

In essence then, Uhuru Kenyatta is a divider in chief rather than a
uniter in chief.He has succeeded in entrenching tribalism by word and
deed, after all, he must repay his supporters first.

The rest of us could do with food crumbs.

07/11/2017

Uhuru's legacy is tainted by tribalism.

When historians will be sitting down to document uhuru's legacy, what
will it be?I surmise that it will be tribalism.

At no time in our history has the country been more divided.Uhuru
preaches unity, but his ascendacy to power was built on tribalism.

If our politics was purely based on ideology, Uhuru would not have
come this far.If we were to assess Uhuru by the lens of ideology, he
would be a right wing conservative- but a poor one at that. If he was
campaigning on a platform of ideology, his support will have cut
across tribal lines as would have his opposition.

Can Uhuru tolerate competition from a Central Kenya
politician?Obviously not. Why then say 'tuache ukabila' after
consolidating your base?

If Uhuru was a truly unifying leader, he would have gained support
across the country and not just Central and Rift Valley alone.But he
didn't.

That is why Kenya's dream of a uniform but diverse nation shall remain a mirage.

Will Uhuru repay the Moi debt?

No one remembers that in 1997,Uhuru Kenyatta ran for the Gatundu South
parliamentary seat and lost.It is then that President Moi nominated
him to parliament and made him a minister.A few years later, Moi named
Uhuru as his preferred successor. True, Uhuru lost the 2002 election,
but his journey to political ascendacy had began. It would culminate
in 2013 when Uhuru was elected President.

The only way that Uhuru can repay Moi is by making Gideon Moi
President.But there is a big obstacle: William Ruto.

Will Uhuru force Gideon Moi upon Kenyans? How will he circumvent William Ruto?

How can Gideon capture state house yet he has not even captured the
kalenjin nation? More poignantly, can Ruto accept to be used and
discarded just like that?

Will Uhuru sacrifice friendship with Ruto and raise up Gideon Moi? Its
a dilemma that will forever plague the 2022 succession politics.

Has William Ruto gone out too early?

If there is one person that wants us to be done with the 2017
election, it is William Ruto.

He is intent on climbing to power in 2022.However, I would urge Ruto
to be more cautious. First, no one knows whether central Kenya will
reciprocate the support Uhuru Kenyatta got from Rift Valley.

The journey to state house is a path ridden with sharks. Only those
who lay low and strike at the enemy unnoticed make the journey.

Take former President Moi.He was termed as a passing cloud by the
kiambu mafia.Yet he was a calculating figure.He went on to rule Kenya
for 24 years.

Take Mwai Kibaki.He was averse to change. He described defeating KANU
was akin to cutting the mugumo tree with a razor blade.In 2002, thats
what he just did.

Further home, take Salva Kiir.He was the obedient servant of John
Garang. When Garang died in a plane crush, Salva Kiir took over the
reigns of power.

Ruto has laid it bare in succeeding Kenyatta in 2022. But he should
not shove it on everyone's face.

Is Jubilee the old KANU?

Former President Moi said that KANU would rule for 100 years, if not
in name, then in ideology. The carrier of that ideology is Jubilee.

Jubilee is intent on transforming itself into the communist party of
africa. In fact, in the run up to the nomination exercise, Jubilee
sent a delegation to China's communist party to learn about its
operations.

In the communist party of china, ideas are debated.Opposing views are
ironed out. Disagreements are sorted out. When the leaders emerge to
speak to the public, they speak with one voice.It is all about
discipline, not dictatorship.

These are the lessons Jubilee should take to heart. However, what we
see is a party built on ethnicity.Two tribes, kikuyus and kalenjins,
want to load it to other communities. The so called tyranny of numbers
was disabused as a flawed indicator during the repeat poll.

In other words, unless Jubilee transforms itself into a party of
tribes rather than a party of tribes, it will never match KANU, let
alone China's communist party.

Is Raila destined to be a perennial opposition leader?

History has not been kind to Raila Odinga.No one has sacrificed so
much for Kenya as Raila.No one has stood up for Kenya as Raila has
done.And yet, the Presidency is still elusive to Raila.

In a nutshell then, those who have laid low have managed to rise to
the presidency. Look at Moi, whom the kiambu mafia described as a
'passing cloud'.Look at Kibaki, who once said that defeating kanu was
like cutting the mugumo tree with a razor blade.

Those opposed to Raila claim that he is anti kikuyu to the core.They
claim he coined the so called 41 against 1 in the lead up to the 2007
election.In fact, all a central kenya politician needs to do to win is
to spew an anti Raila venom.

No one knows Raila's next step in the treacherous political scene that
is Kenya.Whatever steps he takes, his contribution to the modern Kenya
political dispensation must not go unnoticed.